As June progressed, it became increasingly clear Newcastle United's transfer business wouldn't step up until early July. Perhaps that contradicts what coach Eddie Howe asked for at the end of last season - "dynamic start to the window" - but there is growing hope of a breakthrough between over the next week before the players reconvene for pre-season on July 7 with a reported £150m ($205m) to spend.
Bids have been made, but crucially not accepted, for Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford, Nottingham Forest winger Anthony Elanga and Brighton forward Joao Pedro. Interest in all three has been long-standing, with movement on Trafford expected soon. But Forest is refusing to reduce its £60m ($82m) asking price for Elanga, while Chelsea has entered the race for Joao Pedro and he is said to favour a move to London. Howe was intent on early movement on targets to avoid missing out on them, but the Brazilian would join Dean Huijsen, Liam Delap and Bryan Mbeumo in choosing against a move to Tyneside already.
Frustration is growing among the fanbase, and the entire approach is beginning to be questioned.
There is context behind growing fan discontent. Newcastle hasn't strengthened its first team squad significantly in two years, and last summer was a particularly difficult one. There were public chases for Premier League targets Michael Olise and Marc Guehi which failed, after forced sales of exciting young players Yankuba Minteh and Elliot Anderson to comply with Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) and disagreements between Howe and members of the board. Even though Newcastle won a trophy and secured Champions League qualification last season and has made moves to secure players since the window opened, unconditional trust in the decision makers has eroded dangerously.
Supporters are still awaiting an update on two key appointments in the boardroom. Paul Mitchell, the sporting director, is leaving on Monday and CEO Darren Eales will follow in September due to his health. Co-owner Jamie Reuben is said to be stepping up in negotiations, while Andy Howe and Steve Nickson are taking a hands on role in recruitment. But the lack of clarity is a concern, and without a breakthrough, some believe Newcastle is simply repeating its errors in the market again.
Perhaps that is a harsh assessment. But all of those targets have one thing in common, which other successful signings since the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund's takeover of the club in October 2021 do not. Not only are they all domestic based, but they are also extremely in demand with lots of other top clubs making bids too. Mbeumo was always going to have his pick of clubs, as were Olise and Huijsen, and all of those have more financial power than Newcastle; namely Manchester United, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Although the project is an exciting one, there is only so much they can offer in terms of wages in the current climate.
Newcastle does struggle with PSR more than most, and some are asking valid questions. about the fairness of the rules. Arguably nobody else is shopping for players above the allowance of its revenue streams; Aston Villa has, but sells key assets to offset the effects. Revenue has grown from £140m ($192m) in 2021 to £320m in 2024 and that trajectory will only continue, but signing 'in demand' players will always be difficult.
The club isn't getting the most out of its opportunity within the restrictions either.
With such scrutiny on every financial decision these days, no big signing can be a failure. It stands to reason why Howe in particular is driving the idea of certainty with recruits, players who will not need time to settle. Newcastle has rightly earned great credit for its success rate, but the common theme is all of those players have arrived with risk, liked by bigger clubs but crucially not enough to be poached by one of them.
Anthony Gordon, for example, was wanted by Chelsea, but Newcastle signed him when excitement around him had died off a bit. A year before Alexander Isak joined, he was fresh off a season scoring 17 goals for Real Sociedad and impressing at the COVID-impacted Euro 2020; Arsenal were heavily linked. By the time he signed, doubts emerged after he netted just six times in the prior campaign, and Newcastle was seen as taking a risk.
Interest in Bruno Guimaraes and Sven Botman was rife too, but Newcastle again acted swiftly with a strong desire to secure them after others didn't move. It also explains why those deals can be done away from the headlines, because there isn't as much talk around them.
Who could Newcastle United move for?
There have been links with players who fit that description this summer, and Newcastle is expected to look at other targets if no progress can be made after recent bids. Giorgio Scalvini is an extremely highly-rated defender playing for Atalanta in Italy; he is expected to develop into an elite centre back, but a serious knee injury has cooled speculation and reduced his value to a reported £40m ($55m). Now would be the time to act.
Similarly, Dutch playmaker Xavi Simons has been on the radar of a number of clubs, having come through the Barcelona academy before moving to Paris Saint-Germain. Last year, when he joined RB Leipzig, the likes of Bayern Munich and Manchester United were interested, after his impressive Euro 2024 campaign which included a goal against England in the semi-final.
But it has been clear he wants to leave the German club after failure to qualify for Europe for some weeks and nobody has swooped, perhaps because he isn't 'Premier League proven'. His reported valuation is £60m ($82m), the same as Brighton want for Joao Pedro and Forest want for Elanga, but he has played in the Champions League. That is the kind of chance they took before; his situation is extremely similar to Isak's. Why not move now?
Newcastle has promised a lot this summer, there is a need to strengthen considerably and the ability to make that a reality. But it needs to be clever in the market; trying to sign players bigger rivals are after hasn't worked before. If Chelsea successfully move for Joao Pedro, a change of approach is required.
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