Russia and Iran have long been economic and strategic partners. But despite a new defense pact, the Kremlin is unlikely to offer military aid to Iran in the conflict with Israel.
Despite the Kremlin's newly minted defense pact with Iran, Russia is unlikely to directly assist the Islamic Republic in the conflict with Israel© IMAGO/SNA
Since Israel began its recent attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in touch with world leaders about the conflict.
Right after the start of Israel's attacks last Friday, Putin spoke with both the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Kremlin said.
In a statement on the Kremlin's website, the Russian leader "expressed his condolences to the leadership and people of Iran over the numerous human casualties" and "emphasized that Russia condemns Israel's actions, which were carried out in violation of the UN Charter and international law."
The next day, Putin once again condemned Israel's operation during a phone call with US President Donald Trump, a staunch supporter of Netanyahu.
Yet despite Russia's deepening alliance with Iran, the Kremlin is unlikely to provide military aid to its strategic partner.
Russia and Iran have long been strategic partners© Iranian Supreme Leader/AP Photo/picture alliance
Moscow's golden deal with Tehran
Given the economic ties between Russia and Iran, Putin's rebuke of Israel for attacking the Islamic Republic does not come as a surprise.
Iran has long been a close partner of Russia, not least because Western democracies heavily sanction both countries. Iran also recently joined BRICS, a group of non-Western nations with emerging economies that Russia helped to found.
Their relationship grew even closer after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Western allies accused Iran of supplying Russia with military drones, which were eventually used to attack Ukraine's civilian infrastructure as well. According to media reports, Moscow may have paid for the drones with at least 1.8 tons of gold bars, worth around $104 million, transferred to the Iranian company Sahara Thunder. Iran may also have asked Russia to help it realize its nuclear program.
Analysts believe Moscow wouldn't want to lose such a reliable partner.
"The Kremlin is acting according to an old Quranic principle: 'Fight and wage war, but do not transgress,'" Ruslan Suleymanov, a Middle East analyst based in Cairo, Egypt, tells DW. "In other words, Moscow, which has its interests and presence in the Middle East, would prefer to avoid any kind of uncontrollable chaos in the region."
Why Russian military aid to Iran is unlikely
Following the launch of Israel's attacks in Iran, the Iranian parliament ratified the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia. The deal was signed initially by the presidents of both countries in January and approved by the Russian parliament two months ago.
Despite its ambitious name, the treaty falls short of establishing a mutual defense pact. It does not oblige either side to provide military assistance in the event of an attack. Instead, it simply commits both parties to refrain from aiding their adversaries.
Last January, Iran president Pezeshkian visited Russia to sign a partnership agreement© Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool/File Photo/REUTERS
Middle East analyst Marianna Belenkaya, who left Russia after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and now resides in Israel, believes Moscow is highly unlikely to offer Iran any direct military support, at least not in any official or public capacity.
"It has no need to, especially as it is trying to restore or improve relations with Washington, although some behind-the-scenes involvement can't be ruled out entirely." Belenkaya reckons.
Russia as a mediator for Iran
Belenkaya says Putin is sincere in his recent public offers to act as a mediator between Iran and its opponents. According to her, Putin reportedly advised Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to return to the negotiating table last year.
Trump said in a recent interview with the US news network ABC News that he was open to Russia mediating the Israel-Iran conflict.
Belenkaya believes that Russia, "probably can't put pressure on Iran the way the US did," as a mediator, "but it can serve as a channel of communication."
During the indirect talks between the US and Iran in April, Russia was indeed expected to play a significant role in the event of a nuclear deal with Iran. The Guardian newspaper reported that Moscow was being considered as a potential destination for Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and could also serve as an impartial arbiter in case of any breaches in the agreement. This arrangement suggested that Russia would bring Iran's highly enriched uranium back to the country if the US breached the deal.
If such a deal were struck, Germany, France, and the UK, would lose their roles as guarantors under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump pulled the US out of in 2018.
The aftermath of a recent Russian attack on Kyiv© Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo/picture alliance
Kremlin's chance to advance in Ukraine
At the same time, experts believe the Kremlin must be enjoying the West's distraction from its ongoing war against Ukraine. On Tuesday, Russia launched one of its deadliest attacks on Kyiv in recent months, killing 14 and injuring dozens.
At the same time, G7 leaders seek to tackle the Middle East escalation at the group's current summit in Canada. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had said beforehand that the issue would be "very high on the agenda."
Meanwhile, a June 17 meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears to have been called off after Trump's early departure from the G7 summit.
Suleimanov, the Cairo-based Middle East analyst, underscored that it's in the Kremlin's best interest that American and European leaders are distracted from what's happening in Ukraine.
"Against this backdrop, Putin may seize the opportunity to launch an offensive or cause some other kind of trouble," Suleimanov said.
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