Four favourites have emerged to succeed Pope Francis but it is unclear which cardinal will be picked
The first hint of the next pope's direction will come with the name he chooses.
After the traditional announcement of "Habemus Papam" - "We have a pope" - from the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica, the new pontiff's baptismal name is revealed, followed by the all-important papal name, laden with symbolic meaning.
A Pope Francis II would signal a continuation of the late pontiff's focus on pastoral care and the marginalised.
Interestingly, Francis himself jokingly suggested his successor might be John XXIV, referencing the progressive pope of the Second Vatican Council era.
Conversely, selecting Pius, the most frequently used papal name of the 20th century, would clearly indicate a traditionalist taking the helm.
As Natalia Imperatori-Lee, chair of religious studies at Manhattan College, notes, "In the deepest recesses of their mind, when they start the conclave, everyone will walk in there with a name in their head." The chosen name will offer a crucial first glimpse into the new pope's vision for the Catholic Church.
Four favourites have emerged to succeed Pope Francis, but what will their new name mean?
History of papal names
For most of the Catholic Church's first millennium, popes used their given names. The first exception was the 6th century Roman Mercurius, who had been named for a pagan god and chose the more appropriate name of John II.
The practice of adopting a new name became ingrained during the 11th century, a period of German popes who chose names of early church bishops out of "a desire to signify continuity," said the Rev. Roberto Regoli, a historian at Rome's Pontifical Gregorian University.
For many centuries, new popes tended to choose the name of the pope who had elevated them to cardinal. John was the most popular, chosen by 23 popes, followed by Benedict and Gregory, each with 16.
Only starting in the mid-20th century did new popes begin to choose names signaling the aim of their papacy, Regoli said.
"Even now, as we are waiting for the new pope, the name with which he will present himself will help us to understand the horizon towards which he wants to proceed," Regoli said.
Some names have been out of use for centuries, like Urban or Innocent.
"I don't think anyone will pick Innocent,″ Imperatori-Lee said, given the abuse and other scandals that have rocked the church. "I don't think that would be the right choice."
Recent names of Popes
FRANCIS
Pope Francis, elected in 2013, took the name of St. Francis of Assisi, known for his humility, life of poverty and love of all creatures.
With it, Francis signaled a papacy focused on those who are often seen as outsiders, including the poor, prisoners and the LGBTQ+ community, while promoting peace, brotherhood and care of the environment.
BENEDICT
Last chosen by German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, elected in 2005. Pope Benedict XVI said he wanted to pay homage to Benedict XV, who led the church during World War I and dedicated himself to healing the rifts of war, and to the 6th century St. Benedict, founder of Western monasticism, who helped spread Christianity throughout Europe.
One of Benedict XVI's priorities was trying to revive the faith in Europe. "If we get a Benedict, then we will know that the cardinals chose to see Francis as an anomaly," Imperatori-Lee said.
JOHN PAUL
The papacy's first composite name was chosen by Cardinal Albino Luciani in 1978 to honor Pope John XXIII, who opened the Vatican Council II process that reformed the Catholic Church, and Paul VI, who closed it.
The name signaled a commitment to reforms, including sidelining the Latin Mass in favor of local languages and opening to other faiths, most significantly Judaism. John Paul I's papacy lasted just 33 days. Polish Cardinal Karol Wojtyla, who succeeded him, chose the name John Paul II.
JOHN
Chosen 23 times by popes, most recently in 1958 by Pope John XXIII. John can refer to St. John the Apostle, one of Jesus' 12 apostles and the author of one of the Gospels, or St. John the Baptist, the prophet who baptized Jesus.
"John the XXIII was a pope that no one expected a lot from, but had a colossal impact on the church," Imperatori-Lee said. "So that could be a sign of what they want their pontificate to be like."
PAUL
Chosen six times, most recently in 1963 by Paul VI. St. Paul the Apostle spread the teachings of Jesus in the 1st century.
PIUS
It is associated with popes known for their traditionalist, anti-reform bent. Pius IX ordered the kidnapping of the Jewish boy Edgardo Mortara in 1858 and raised him Catholic in the Vatican after learning he had been secretly baptized by a housekeeper.
Pius X was the early 20th century anti-modernist who inspired the anti-Vatican II schismatic group, the Society of St. Pius X. Pius XII was the World War II-era pope criticized for not speaking out sufficiently about the Holocaust.
"It is now a name that is hostage to some Catholic groups that can be considered traditionalists," Regoli said.
New directions for a Pope
A new pope is free to choose a name never used before, as Francis did.
"This would open a new season and could mean that his program is not in line with any of his predecessors, so an even more personalized program," Regoli said.
Imperatori-Lee suggested another name that might signal a continuation of Francis' legacy: Ignatius, for the founder of Francis' Jesuit order.
"It would be interesting," she said. "We've never had one of those."
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